Saturday! We did it!
#TheCard, NL MVP and the projected college bracket
Welcome to the best day of the week everyone, it’s gonna be 70 degrees and sunny in Chicago let’s have an absolute day amirite!!!
And please, allow me to be the first to wish all of your mothers a happy Mother’s Day weekend.
Ton to do today outside of the bets, wanna talk NL MVP because I think there’s a shot or two we can take at the current -360 favorite.
And we are THIS close to the college baseball tournament, so we’ve started to get some projected brackets which we can talk about a little and see if there’s any bets we’d want to make if that projection were to come to fruition.
Honestly, let’s start with the bracket because it’s fun and this is my Substack and I want to.
Shoutout to our friends at D1 baseball for putting this out. A couple things caught my eye.
First and foremost you know I went to the Georgia Tech region, as I find them to be frauds and am looking at every avenue to bet them.
The projected 2 seed here, Jacksonville State isn’t where I would want to go though, if a team is going to knock off GT it’s going to have to be a team that has cut their teeth against top competition all year.
No shade to JSU they’ve been great and have dominated Conference USA but I look to the three seed here, Tennessee. It’s been a rollercoaster ride for the Vols this year as they navigated a manager change and of course the ensuing transfers that naturally followed.
But Tennessee has the talent that could win them a region still, and they have some good wins including a win over Texas last night and a sweep om the road of then #9 Mississippi State. Plus as a 3 seed here you’d get pretty good #value on a number.
The next region that caught my eye in these projections was the College Station region. Texas A&M has made a roaring charge down the stretch here to possible host not just one region but potentially two, with D1 having them as the 8th overall seed.
However that comes with some stipulations as our friends making this bracket gave the Aggies some tough opponents. Oklahoma State is the two seed here and despite their 10-10 road record they’ve made a charge into the rankings, having won 9 of their last 10 at the time of this writing. Even though the Aggies would be hosting that’s a rough draw. And the three seed is no slouch in this projection either, UTSA is 33-16 on the year and has built a strong follow up season to their run to the Super Regionals in 2025. They know what it’s like to play spoiler and will look to do it again.
Last one I’ll mention in this projection (before we get a new one Monday). Oregon sneaks in as a host at the 16th overall seed.
But they would likely be a slight favorite if at all against the 2 seed Boston College. Birdball has slowed a touch but still is really strong overall as the 18th seed in this projection and just missing out on host status. Oregon is a good-not-great team and would be the exact type of draw we’re looking for with BC.
Alright let’s talk NL MVP
Shohei Ohtani still reigns as the -360 favorite. Let’s just get that out of the way right now.
And I’m not saying he shouldn’t be, the guy is awesome.
*extreme Stephen A Smith voice*
HOWEVER. Most of his greatness this year has come as a pitcher. In 6 starts across 37 innings Ohtani has a 0.97 ERA, has allowed just two home runs (both solo shots both in his last start) and has had 7 strikeouts or more in his last 4 starts.
As a hitter Ohtani is hitting just .248 with a pretty pedestrian .822 OPS. On top of that over the last 4 weeks (22 games) the superstar is hitting just .238 with a .759 OPS.
Shohei has won the MVP each year since joining the Dodgers. And we know that great pitchers have their own award yearly little thing called the Cy Young Award. It’s making me wonder if the voters might take the opportunity to still reward Ohtani for his greatness while giving someone else some shine as the MVP.
Is it likely? Maybe not, he is still a -360 favorite after all and is still Shohei freakin’ Ohtani. But I think we can take a speculative shot or two.
Elly De La Cruz (25-1)
The Reds shortstop has been a star in the making for years now, finishing 8th in MVP voting in 2024 and receiving votes again last year. He looks to make it a third straight All-Star game and maybe, if the door is gonna be cracked, an MVP season.
Despite the pedestrian .272 batting average and .857 OPS Elly has still built himself a strong base to potentially go nuclear. I say that because one of the draws of Elly as an MVP candidate has always been his speed-power combo. This is a dude who can go 30-30 easily and possibly even 40-40. He’s already had one year with 25 homers and SIXTY SEVEN steals. With the potential to put up nutty counting stats like that he’s always going to be a draw.
Elly’s peripherals all look good across the board too, he’s in the 81st percentile or better in bat speed, xWOBA, xSLG, hard hit rate and he’s 95th percentile in barrel rate and average exit velocity. In that home ballpark there’s an increase in the numbers coming.
Also helpful is that De La Cruz is the star player on a potential division winner. We know team success usually doesn’t have a huge impact on voting for MVP but if the Reds continue their ascension and win a packed NL Central it could be the boost to get Elly over the finish line for MVP.
Speaking of strong peripherals…..
Fernando Tatis Jr. (100-1)
I’ll die on this hill I do not care what that idiot Colby Marchio has to say.
This is an insane number for a guy who was an MVP finalist just a couple years ago and has finished in the voting two other times outside of that “steroid year”.
A superstar in the league who for years has been priced in the 12-15 range is now triple digits? Does that sound right to anyone?
I know, I know he has a grand total of zero home runs and just six extra base hits in 37 games. But he is SCORCHING the ball. 99th percentile in hard hit rate, 92nd percentile in average exit velocity. Almost nobody is hitting the ball harder than Nando. It’s just that said balls are being hit directly into the ground and causing mass devastation to generations of earthworms.
But, if we’re going to take a shot at Ohtani and his -360 price shouldn’t we make it worth our while? Would you really rather bet James Wood at 40-1 or would you rather take the established superstar with insane peripherals at triple digits? I know my answer.
All right that’s all the rambling I have for today. Let’s get to #TheCard
Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 Strikeouts -108 (blue book)
Yesavage has been dominant in his two starts since coming off the injured list. The Blue Jays postseason darling has allowed just one run across 9 and 1/3 innings, with 9 strikeouts. Toronto is understandably taking it slow with their young ace, he threw 74 pitches in his debut and 82 in his second start.
But today lines up to be the true coming out party for him. The Angels have fallen back down to earth after their surprising start to the year, they now own the top strikeout rate in baseball overall and against right-handed pitchers. On his home turf and with the workload increasing this is a good opportunity for Yesavage to have a moment.
Colorado Rockies Moneyline +159 (green book)
Stove touch of the day here! Although to be fair the Rockies came through last night in extras to beat Philadelphia.
I’m gonna go back to the well here because I can’t believe we’re making Aaron Nola this big of a favorite in the big 2026.
The Phillies are third worst in the league against left-handed pitching this season and this roster bats just .204 against Kyle Freeland in the past.
Chicago Cubs Team Total Over 4.5 -104 (blue book)
This is just straight up a fade of Jack Leiter. Even though he’s been better at home than on the road that home ERA is still a 4.50 and the defense behind him is still absolutely atrocious.
The Cubs lineup can hit and in bunches, against the fourth worst rated pitcher on the day and a bullpen that’s in flux to boot, we take this short -104 number.
Many of the Cubs regulars will be seeing him for the first time too so an opportunity to jump ahead early.
St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline +123 (green book)
If the books are gonna keep lobbing up big plus money for the Cardinals we’re gonna keep taking it. St. Louis is up 2-0 in the series and even though I’m not the biggest Dustin May believer he has been much better since his disastrous first two outings.
Since allowing 13 runs in just 8 innings across his first two starts May has put up a 2.45 ERA in the following 5 starts with the Cardinals going 4-1 in that span. At this big of a price, which I think is a massive misprice, we’ll stick with the red hot Redbirds.
That’s gonna do it for today, no college baseball game picks for me today nothing really stands out and with the regular season rapidly approaching its end I’m not gonna try and read any tea leaves, so MLB only today.
Hey let’s have a Saturday let’s have a WEEKEND. I for one will be outside and, as Femi Abebefe likes to say, #active.
Cheers!