I’ve been saying for a couple weeks now, whether it be here or on Off The Board with Colby Marchio or on Gameday Garage the Show and the U, but betting college baseball on a game to game basis at this point in the season is tough. Things get weird, teams stumble (Kansas, Texas) others are red hot playing for their tournament lives (hi Vanderbilt!) it’s just as mess. Hell even UCLA lost their first Big Ten game of the year!

All that to say there were major developments across the weekend in college baseball. Oklahoma State continued their torrid run, taking a series from then-ranked Arizona State and on the road at that. the Pokes will be a TOUGH 2 seed for some host to get past (begging screaming pleading for them to be in Oregon State’s region).

Kansas got bullied by West Virginia all weekend after the Jayhawks had been one of the hottest teams in the country, now their shot at hosting looks in doubt as does their chances to win the Big 12.

After I spent the last two weeks gassing up Coastal Carolina they lost the series at home to OLD DOMINION and now they may lose the opportunity to host too.

And then to cap it all off Texas lost their series to Tennessee. Again, considering our positions on the Longhorns I’d rather they take these lumps now than two weeks from now but can we PLEASE get it together soon? Thank!

Anyway thanks to all those things, among others, I think we are going to see some major shakeups in the projected bracket tomorrow and I’ll be right here to break it all down for you people when we get it. So stay tuned for that.

But for now we go to today’s light MLB card.

Ryan Weathers Over 5.5 Strikeouts -130, Over 6.5 Strikeouts +168 vs Baltimore Orioles (blue book)

I’ve always been a Ryan Weathers guy, dating back to his time with San Diego. He just has never been able to put together a fully healthy year. But as a member of the Yankees, so far so good. Through 7 starts as a Yankee Weathers has a 3.03 ERA and 4 starts with at least 7 punch outs. He just saw the Orioles last time out and now gets them again this time in Baltimore where the Birds have the 5th highest K rate in baseball.

Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline +110 vs Toronto Blue Jays

For as long as books are going to keep slapping the Rays up there as underdogs, I’m going to keep taking the plus money. This is another rematch we just saw a few days ago, with Drew Rasmussen and Kevin Gausman squaring off once again. Both these guys are (sorta) in the Cy Young race thanks to Tarik Skubal’s elbow falling apart like brisket so it should be a low scoring affair and when it comes to those situations, no one wins like the Rays.

Jesus Rodriguez Over 1.5 Total Bases +230 (blue book)

Now the unquestioned starting catcher following the trade of Patrick Bailey, Rodriguez has al the runway in the world here. I can’t prove that his .918 OPS (through one week since his debut) helped the Giants in their decision but gotta think it didn’t hurt. Now here’s Roki Sasaki the man who can’t keep the ball inside the park. Rodriguez should be playing with confidence here and has a bounce back opportunity after going 1-6 in Sunday's game.

JAKEY RAKES JUST FOR FUNSIES HOME RUN PLAY OF THE DAY: Jo Adell (Angels) vs Cleveland +610 (green book)

Why not ride the hot hand right? Adell just had a to homer game yesterday so let’s try to catch the back end of this wave. Guardians starter Joey Cantillo has had a solid year but it hasn’t been anything mesmerizing. He also has given up 5 homers in his last 5 starts so #trendz. More importantly Jo Adell has been walloping left-handed pitching this year with a .326 batting average, .717 slugging percentage and all 6 of his homers coming against lefties. Oh and Adell rates as elite t batters-box.com today.

Little baby substack for today. Tomorrow we’ll be back with the projected college baseball bracket and the full Tuesday card. If anyone has any futures or general questions feel free to comment or just message me on twitter at TheJakeHasan of instagram hasan_jake.

Otherwise you can catch me for Off The Board with Colby Marchio Wednesday and Friday at 11:30am central, as well as my solo show Gameday Garage The Show and The U which will be live Fridays at 1230pm central. See ya tomorrow, cheers!

As a 28 year old man it’s the afternoon of Mother’s Day and so no of course I haven’t gotten a card yet. As we’ll make this quick with the bets today because I have to go to Target and then catch a train.

At least the gifts are wrapped already (no they aren’t).

Cristopher Sanchez Over 7.5 (-112), 8.5 (+160) and 9.5 (+320) Strikeouts

Sanchez has been absolutely dominant at home this year and is coming off a start where he just struck out ten.

Now he gets the Rockies who are on a getaway day and also are first in the league in strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching and on the road.

Athletics Moneyline vs Baltimore Orioles (-108)

Straight up just a fade of Chris Bassitt. He’s been absolutely MISERABLE this year and the A’s have a good lineup with Kurtz, Langeliers, Rooker and Cortes spearheading it.

And even though Luis Severino isn’t a necessarily great pitcher he’s much better on the road than at home with a 3.50 road ERA and honestly? The A’s are just a better team.

Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 total bases (+200)

The Giants rookie announced his arrival last night with his first career home run, now he gets to face Bubba Chandler, who has given up a .485 slugging percentage to left-handed hitters so far this year.

Eldridge is one of the most hyped bats in baseball and rightfully so, honestly we should sprinkle his homer price too.

Konnor Griffin to Steal a Base (+485)

Griffin isn’t necessarily known for his speed but as a budding superstar yea, the dude can run a little bit. He already has 9 on the year and at this price I can’t pass on the chance he gets his 10th today.

The Giants just traded away platinum level defender Patrick Bailey, widely regarded as one of if not the best defensive catcher in baseball. Now San Francisco turns things over to rookie Jesus Rodriguez. The Pirates should and likely will try to test him here.

White Sox moneyline vs Seattle +116

I’m not sure how long this Davis Martin miracle run is going to last but I think there’s a little more juice especially against a Seattle team that hasn’t exactly wowed anyone on offense this year.

The White Sox can win the series in front of their home fans today and as a lot of you know Logan Gilbert ain’t it, respectfully.

Diamondbacks moneyline vs New York Mets -112

Mets bullpen game on the road and we’re making this almost a pick? Really? Does anyone REALLY think that’s right?

Welcome to the best day of the week everyone, it’s gonna be 70 degrees and sunny in Chicago let’s have an absolute day amirite!!!

And please, allow me to be the first to wish all of your mothers a happy Mother’s Day weekend.

Ton to do today outside of the bets, wanna talk NL MVP because I think there’s a shot or two we can take at the current -360 favorite.

And we are THIS close to the college baseball tournament, so we’ve started to get some projected brackets which we can talk about a little and see if there’s any bets we’d want to make if that projection were to come to fruition.

Honestly, let’s start with the bracket because it’s fun and this is my Substack and I want to.

Shoutout to our friends at D1 baseball for putting this out. A couple things caught my eye.

First and foremost you know I went to the Georgia Tech region, as I find them to be frauds and am looking at every avenue to bet them.

The projected 2 seed here, Jacksonville State isn’t where I would want to go though, if a team is going to knock off GT it’s going to have to be a team that has cut their teeth against top competition all year.

No shade to JSU they’ve been great and have dominated Conference USA but I look to the three seed here, Tennessee. It’s been a rollercoaster ride for the Vols this year as they navigated a manager change and of course the ensuing transfers that naturally followed.

But Tennessee has the talent that could win them a region still, and they have some good wins including a win over Texas last night and a sweep om the road of then #9 Mississippi State. Plus as a 3 seed here you’d get pretty good #value on a number.

The next region that caught my eye in these projections was the College Station region. Texas A&M has made a roaring charge down the stretch here to possible host not just one region but potentially two, with D1 having them as the 8th overall seed.

However that comes with some stipulations as our friends making this bracket gave the Aggies some tough opponents. Oklahoma State is the two seed here and despite their 10-10 road record they’ve made a charge into the rankings, having won 9 of their last 10 at the time of this writing. Even though the Aggies would be hosting that’s a rough draw. And the three seed is no slouch in this projection either, UTSA is 33-16 on the year and has built a strong follow up season to their run to the Super Regionals in 2025. They know what it’s like to play spoiler and will look to do it again.

Last one I’ll mention in this projection (before we get a new one Monday). Oregon sneaks in as a host at the 16th overall seed.

But they would likely be a slight favorite if at all against the 2 seed Boston College. Birdball has slowed a touch but still is really strong overall as the 18th seed in this projection and just missing out on host status. Oregon is a good-not-great team and would be the exact type of draw we’re looking for with BC.

Alright let’s talk NL MVP

Shohei Ohtani still reigns as the -360 favorite. Let’s just get that out of the way right now.

And I’m not saying he shouldn’t be, the guy is awesome.

*extreme Stephen A Smith voice*

HOWEVER. Most of his greatness this year has come as a pitcher. In 6 starts across 37 innings Ohtani has a 0.97 ERA, has allowed just two home runs (both solo shots both in his last start) and has had 7 strikeouts or more in his last 4 starts.

As a hitter Ohtani is hitting just .248 with a pretty pedestrian .822 OPS. On top of that over the last 4 weeks (22 games) the superstar is hitting just .238 with a .759 OPS.

Shohei has won the MVP each year since joining the Dodgers. And we know that great pitchers have their own award yearly little thing called the Cy Young Award. It’s making me wonder if the voters might take the opportunity to still reward Ohtani for his greatness while giving someone else some shine as the MVP.

Is it likely? Maybe not, he is still a -360 favorite after all and is still Shohei freakin’ Ohtani. But I think we can take a speculative shot or two.

Elly De La Cruz (25-1)

The Reds shortstop has been a star in the making for years now, finishing 8th in MVP voting in 2024 and receiving votes again last year. He looks to make it a third straight All-Star game and maybe, if the door is gonna be cracked, an MVP season.

Despite the pedestrian .272 batting average and .857 OPS Elly has still built himself a strong base to potentially go nuclear. I say that because one of the draws of Elly as an MVP candidate has always been his speed-power combo. This is a dude who can go 30-30 easily and possibly even 40-40. He’s already had one year with 25 homers and SIXTY SEVEN steals. With the potential to put up nutty counting stats like that he’s always going to be a draw.

Elly’s peripherals all look good across the board too, he’s in the 81st percentile or better in bat speed, xWOBA, xSLG, hard hit rate and he’s 95th percentile in barrel rate and average exit velocity. In that home ballpark there’s an increase in the numbers coming.

Also helpful is that De La Cruz is the star player on a potential division winner. We know team success usually doesn’t have a huge impact on voting for MVP but if the Reds continue their ascension and win a packed NL Central it could be the boost to get Elly over the finish line for MVP.

Speaking of strong peripherals…..

Fernando Tatis Jr. (100-1)

I’ll die on this hill I do not care what that idiot Colby Marchio has to say.

This is an insane number for a guy who was an MVP finalist just a couple years ago and has finished in the voting two other times outside of that “steroid year”.

A superstar in the league who for years has been priced in the 12-15 range is now triple digits? Does that sound right to anyone?

I know, I know he has a grand total of zero home runs and just six extra base hits in 37 games. But he is SCORCHING the ball. 99th percentile in hard hit rate, 92nd percentile in average exit velocity. Almost nobody is hitting the ball harder than Nando. It’s just that said balls are being hit directly into the ground and causing mass devastation to generations of earthworms.

But, if we’re going to take a shot at Ohtani and his -360 price shouldn’t we make it worth our while? Would you really rather bet James Wood at 40-1 or would you rather take the established superstar with insane peripherals at triple digits? I know my answer.

All right that’s all the rambling I have for today. Let’s get to #TheCard

Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 Strikeouts -108 (blue book)

Yesavage has been dominant in his two starts since coming off the injured list. The Blue Jays postseason darling has allowed just one run across 9 and 1/3 innings, with 9 strikeouts. Toronto is understandably taking it slow with their young ace, he threw 74 pitches in his debut and 82 in his second start.

But today lines up to be the true coming out party for him. The Angels have fallen back down to earth after their surprising start to the year, they now own the top strikeout rate in baseball overall and against right-handed pitchers. On his home turf and with the workload increasing this is a good opportunity for Yesavage to have a moment.

Colorado Rockies Moneyline +159 (green book)

Stove touch of the day here! Although to be fair the Rockies came through last night in extras to beat Philadelphia.

I’m gonna go back to the well here because I can’t believe we’re making Aaron Nola this big of a favorite in the big 2026.

The Phillies are third worst in the league against left-handed pitching this season and this roster bats just .204 against Kyle Freeland in the past.

Chicago Cubs Team Total Over 4.5 -104 (blue book)

This is just straight up a fade of Jack Leiter. Even though he’s been better at home than on the road that home ERA is still a 4.50 and the defense behind him is still absolutely atrocious.

The Cubs lineup can hit and in bunches, against the fourth worst rated pitcher on the day and a bullpen that’s in flux to boot, we take this short -104 number.

Many of the Cubs regulars will be seeing him for the first time too so an opportunity to jump ahead early.

St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline +123 (green book)

If the books are gonna keep lobbing up big plus money for the Cardinals we’re gonna keep taking it. St. Louis is up 2-0 in the series and even though I’m not the biggest Dustin May believer he has been much better since his disastrous first two outings.

Since allowing 13 runs in just 8 innings across his first two starts May has put up a 2.45 ERA in the following 5 starts with the Cardinals going 4-1 in that span. At this big of a price, which I think is a massive misprice, we’ll stick with the red hot Redbirds.

That’s gonna do it for today, no college baseball game picks for me today nothing really stands out and with the regular season rapidly approaching its end I’m not gonna try and read any tea leaves, so MLB only today.

Hey let’s have a Saturday let’s have a WEEKEND. I for one will be outside and, as Femi Abebefe likes to say, #active.

Cheers!

Unfortunately I have zero funny anecdotes today. My brain is straight up not working, hoss. Been having some insane dreams lately though so that’s been interesting. Unfortunately it is NOT helping my sleep.

Save me, magnesium, save me.

Anyway here’s the card y’all.

White Sox Moneyline -112 vs Los Angeles Angels (blue book)

Let’s touch that stove!!! White Sox took a tough luck loss last night, but were in it until the end and now phenom Noah Schultz is on the mound to get things back on track.

Going against Walbert Urena the White Sox offense should be able to get back on track, he’s coming off a strong five innings against the Mets,,,,but that’s the Mets. Laying a slight price with the White Sox here is fine to me.

Athletics Moneyline +144 vs Philadelphia Phillies (blue book)

I give Zack Wheeler a ton of credit, he’s looked good in his first two starts back from shoulder injury. I was skeptical at first but he’s got a 2.45 ERA and a 1.96 FIP so far with one of those starts being against a tough Braves team.

All that being said though I’m still not sure he should be a -170 favorite just yet. The Phillies have played better overall but they are still a bottom 3 team against left-handed pitching and Jeffrey Springs has good history against their lineup in 40 at-bats.

Konnor Griffin Over 1.5 Total Bases +172 (green book)

Predictably, Griffin’s rookie of the year number has been about cut in half since SOME people (me) said we should be betting him 13-1 a couple weeks ago. Obviously still a long way to go but the point is Griffin is starting to look like the guy who was the top overall prospect in baseball coming into the year.

Since his 20th birthday on April 24th Griffin is slashing .410/.477/.692 with 3 doubles, a triple and 2 homers. So to still be getting +172 on his bases while he turns into a star before our eyes is something we have to jump on.

Smaller card today with the day games taking place. We’ll see you tomorrow for the next one with a little MVP chatter to boot. Cheers!

Before we get into the bets today let’s touch briefly on the premiere award in college baseball, Golden Spikes. For those of you who don’t know Golden Spikes is basically the MVP award for college. And a lot of times you get someone out of nowhere who wins it, like Roch Cholowsky in 2025 when he cemented himself as a star and future top draft pick.

Coming into the 25-26 season Cholowsky was your favorite again and has done absolutely nothing to make us think he shouldn’t win the award again. He plays elite defense at shorstop, has 18 home runs, is hitting .335 oh and is the face of the #1 team in the country.

But there are other contenders who have cases to be made and some of them are out of nowhere, as usual with college baseball. Cholowsky actually sits as your 4th favorite at 9-1 right now.

I bring this all up because Evan D reached out to me on twitter (shoutout to Evan) asking if I had any thoughts because there is a pretty big divide in the market right now. If you go to Caesar’s you’ll see the odds as follows: Caden Sorrell (Texas A&M), Daniel Jackson (Georgia), Tague Davis (Louisville) then Cholowsky at 9-1.

However if you go to a prediction market like Kalshi it’s wildly different. At the top for them is Cholowsky and at a -251 favorite.

Pretty broad picture being painted there. I’ll scratch off a couple guys for us right here. Jackson and Sorrell are good and on good teams but not making history so I struggle to see it compared to the others.

For me it’s between three guys. Davis because sitting at 30 homers with two weekends left he could break Charlie Condon’s single season home run record of 37. Cholowsky for obvious reasons which would then make him the first player to ever win multiple Golden Spikes awards. And thirdly is Landon Hairston, who is putting up absolutely nutty numbers with a .426 average and 25 homers for a ranked Arizona State team. Do with that information what you will. Alright let’s get to the card for today.

Boston Red Sox First 3 Innings Team Total Under 0.5 +105 (green book)

The start of the Framber Valdez Cy young campaign? Picking up the torch from Tarik Skubal’s exploded elbow?

If Valdez is going to make a run at this thing (like we mentioned in yesterday’s Substack) today’s a perfect opportunity to start. At home, against a miserable Red Sox team that got lucky yesterday in a weird weather game. The Red Sox are 5 percent below league average against left handed pitching this year and hit just .243 across 70 at-bats against Valdez. Plus the regression from yesterday.

Cristopher Sanchez Over 7.5 Ks vs Athletics +154 (blue book)

Sanchez is still one of the top contenders for NL Cy Young and has a chance to make a statement tonight.

The A’s are absolutely miserable on the road this year with a wRC+ of 86 and more importantly a strikeout rate that is 2nd highest in the league at 29.5%. 7.5 is a scary number but the Phillies ace has gone over this in 3 of his 5 home starts and he’s had 3 starts already this year with double digit punchouts.

Washington Nationals First Five Innings Moneyline -106 (blue book)

This is quickly becoming a bread and butter play for me. Cavalli is maybe one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball at the moment. He struck out 10 batters each in his lst two starts while only walking 2, has a FIP that is significantly lower than his ERA and even though he doesn’t go deep into games he consistently gives the Nats chances to win.

Going against a Twins team that is horrid and with the looming regression for Taj Bradley coming I love backing Cavalli in this spot.

Chicago White Sox Moneyline -104 (blue book)

Sure let’s just keep tossing up the White Sox as dogs to the Angels. These are two teams going in opposite directions. The White Sox have confidence and are playing good baseball and have the chance to get back to .500 with a win tonight. I know Erick Fedde is just okay but Angels starter Sam Adegheri makes just his second appearance of the season (first since April 16) and first career major league start. Now here’s Munetaka Murakami. Good luck!

JAKEY RAKES JUST FOR FUNSIES HOME RUN PLAY OF THE DAY….ON A DUESDAY…ELLY DE LA CRUZ +520

Cheating a little but this is my Substack and I can do what I want. Why is Elly #due even though he has 10 homers on the year? Well because he’s searching for his first homer in the month of May of course! It’s true that Elly’s numbers take a significant drop on the road HOWEVER he has an elite rating on batters-box today AND is hitting .333 over his last 12 games AND absolutely crushes Jameson Taillon, 5 for 14 with 2 homers against the Cubs starter. Great price here too for one of baseball’s superstars.

Hopefully will get to tweet KABLAMMO again tonight, which you can follow me at TheJakeHasan if you really want to. Until tomorrow when it’ll be me and Colby Marchio for Off The Board at 11:30am central time. Byeeeee

Not a ton to take from the college baseball weekend on this Monday. UCLA has officially tied 2013 North Carolina for most consecutive weeks as #1 in the nation. Speaking of UNC the 2026 team stands pat at #2 despite getting demolished at home in the midweek vs Coastal last week. Georgia Tech, Texas and Georgia round out the top 5.

Kansas continues to dominate and have now pushed their way into the top 10 and look likely to host a region for the first time in program history which is pretty cool. They’ll be a team I’ll be interested in backing on a game to game basis.

An update on our futures obviously mentioned Texas already and I still think they will be our best chance at cashing, but man I’d love to believe in our Florida futures. They took the series against Oklahoma and are consensus ranked but what’s not consensus is where to rank them. Depending on who you ask Florida is anywhere from a top 7 team to 17th. They should give us a fun ride (I use the term “fun” loosely here) come tournament.

We only have two weekends of the regular season left and then it’s pedal to the metal. Let’s have some fun! Speaking of which, today’s card.

MJ Melendez Over 1.5 Total Bases +108 (green book)

Shop around because this number is all over the place, the lion book has it at -110. But anyway Melendez has been a revelation for the Mets this year, batting .324 with a .983 OPS he’s been massive for them staying (somewhat) afloat so far while dealing with key injuries to their stars.

But anyway, this is a fade of Tomoyuki Sugano, who despite a 2.84 ERA so far, is going to come crashing back to earth at some point because oh buddy these preipherals are #notgood. He’s in the bottom quarter (or worse!) in exit velocite, expected ERA, barrels and hard hit percentage. Inhis career Sugano also allows left-handed hitters to tag him for a good amount of extra base hits.

Melendez is elite rated on the hyphen today and has seen Sugano before, getting the better of him in their only matchup. As long as he’s in the lineup we’re in on this plus money.

Miami Marlins First Five Innings Moneyline -106 (blue book)

We’re really making Aaron Nola a favorite in the big 2026 huh? I know the Marlins have stalled a little lately (5-5 in their last 10) but they get a boost to the lineup today calling up the #54 prospect in baseball catcher Joe Mack and with Janson Junk on the mound I like the Fish today. Junk hasn’t allowed a run in his last two starts, including six shutout innings against the Dodgers his last time out, and now gets a Phillies lineup at home who haven’t been much of anything at all.

Chicago White Sox Moneyline +134 (blue book)

I get Jose Soriano being a massive favorite, and he should be. But! The cardiac White Sox just swept these Angels last week and Davis Martin in his own right has been very good for the Sox.

The Angels as a whole too are just underwhelming and a whole lot of nothing. This White Sox team is playing with some confidence now and I can’t say I blame them. 7-3 in their last 10 while the Angels are just 2-8 in that same span. We might have a wrong team favored situation here!

Bryce Eldridge Over 1.5 Total Bases +195 (lion book)*

This is dependent on if he is in the lineup but holy MISPRICE if he is. Eldridge is one of the top power prospects in the game and to price him at 2-1 basically for bases in a game started by Randy Vasquez (who you’ll remember allowed us to cash Ballesteros HR last week) is highway robbery for bettors.

Hopefully the Giants don’t mess around and will put Eldridge into the lineup right away and if they do this is an absolute must play. Eldridge was hitting .333 with 5 homers in just 30 games at AAA now he gets a potentially cushy landing spot against Vasquez who has gotten pushed around by lefties his entire career and also has peripherals that scream regression, like we saw last week against the Cubs.

I mean I was just about ready to publish this thing and then holy Skubal bomb.

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers ace and reigning back-to-back Cy Young winner, will be undergoing elbow surgery to “remove loose bodies” and is expected to be out 2-3 months.

This is obviously a huge blow to the Tigers and likely makes Cleveland the favorite to win the AL Central now, but the biggest story for us here is AL Cy Young.

Skubal was tracking to make it three straight, he was a sub 2-1 favorite and while it as early he looked as dominant as ever. Now he just doesn’t win. And this thing is blown wide open.

Cam Schlittler is your new favorite at +220, followed by Max Fried at +350 Dylan Cease at 5-1 and so on.

Most of you know me well enough to know I want nothing to do with anyone at the top of the board. My knee jerk reaction honestly goes to Skubal’s teammate Framber Valdez who has been stellar outside of one blowup outing against the Twins.

He routinely goes deep into games will be the ace of the rotation now and has the pedigree as a pitcher who has finished in the top 10 of Cy Young voting multiple times in Houston. Framber also can generate some whiffs, getting 7 and 8 in 2 of his last 3 starts. At 30-1 I think he’s worth a peek.

And how about as an ultra longshot just speculatively Hunter Brown at 250-1? The guy who was a finalist last year, does have a couple starts this year already allowing just one run across those two starts and is getting ready to make his return from injury? Brown has started throwing again as he mamkes his way back from a shoulder strain and if he can come back and return right back to form this number should and probably will crash.

Those are my initial thoughts for now, will hash it out more as the week goes on both here and with Colby Marchio on the Off The Board podcast.

There’s nothing like introducing a new romantic partner to your friends for the first time during a game 7 for said friends favorite team. Just really rip the band aid off right away.

At least then she sees those friends immediately at their most insane. I’m choosing to believe that it was good prep for dealing with me during Bears and Illinois basketball season.

Anyway, had a decent little night and somewhat dealing with the repercussions. A little baby headache never killed no one right?

Here’s the card.

Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline vs Chicago Cubs +135

Not much for this one except I vehemently disagree with the idea of Matthew Boyd being a -163 favorite on a day when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley.

Arizona is tied for third best offense in the league shape left-handed pitching and Boyd is one of the worst rated pitchers on the day.

On top of all that Arizona took two tough-luck losses at Wrigley the last two days, losing 6-5 Friday and 2-0 Saturday. At this price I’ll take the Snakes to avoid the sweep.

Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 Total Bases -105

This is mostly a fade of Spencer Strider, who makes his first start of 2026 today. Not exactly the easiest landing spot in Coors to kick off the year against a Rockies team that can actually hit a little bit.

Moniak has an elite rating by batters-box today, has decent history against Strider (2 for 5) and has absolutely raked at home this year with a .373 batting average and EIGHT HUNDRED slugging percentage.

Rangers-Tigers Over 8 -115

The Tigers part of this equation is pretty simple, they’re going with a bullpen game (for Sunday night baseball, sure the networks love that) when their bullpen has been aggressively mediocre at best. Exactly a 0.0 WAR from that unit, and a 4.14 ERA which is smack dab in the middle of the league.

On the other side is Jack Leiter, who is bad, has bad history against some of Detroits top hitters like Carpenter and Greene and has a 5.87 ERA on the road. So. Yea. Can you tell my brain function is minimal today?

JAKEY RAKES JUST FOR FUNSIES HOME RUN PLAY OF THE DAY:

Right idea, wrong player yesterday as Jordan Walker took Roki Sasaki deep. Today we go with Mickey Moniak for the reasons outlined above, best price on him is +350.

Let’s also continue the fade of Jack Leiter. Give me Riley Greene at +512, he has strong ratings across the board is hitting .357 over the last two week hits .400 at home with a .623 slugging percentage and he’s 2 for 3 against Leiter with a double and a triple. So next obvious step is the home run right? RIGHT?!

That’s all I got for today. Might have a casual little Sunday drink and watch the basketball. Pistons right? Hey follow me on twitter at TheJakeHasan or Instagram hasan_jake for me cool and fun content. See ya tomorrow, cheers!

I know on Thursday I promised a funny personal anecdote but there’s simply too much to get into today. Have some college baseball notes to get into and AL MVP updates to give.

So all that being said, mayhaps the anecdote comes tomorrow.

But for now we start with a college baseball note.

Oregon State starter Dax Whitney is undergoing surgery for an elbow injury, specifically his UCL which will knock him out for the rest of the season.

Whitney is the top ranked pitcher in the 2027 draft and was in the midst of an absolute monster year, most notably carrying a 2.24 ERA with 104 strikeouts in 63 innings.

So what does this mean for us as bettors? It means if you’re holding any kind of College World Series future on the Beavers, sell it if you can.

And if you can’t,,,,I don’t know,,,cry I guess?

The biggest draw for Oregon State, their biggest strength as a possible contender was their pitching duo of Whitney and Ethan Kleinschmitt. Those two together could win you a series even if you scored two runs all weekend. Now with Whitney out that blows a giant hole in who Oregon State is as a team and for me makes them a cross off come tournament.

College baseball note number two.

How about the Chants?

Coastal Carolina beat the brakes off #2 North Carolina in Chapel Hill on Tuesday by a score of 12–2. Coastal is 25-9 since their 6-4 start to the year and they welcomed back ace Cameron Flukey over the weekend.

This team still has some flaws and and things always get weird in the midweek games and we’ll see if Flukey can return to the height of his powers by the start of the tournament, but as of right now Coastal Carolina looks every bit the team that went to the College World Series final last year and might be worth a little dabble to make it back to Omaha. I’ll be very interested in how the bracket shakes out for them.

Quick MVP Thoughts (again)

I am begging, pleading, crying shaking throwing up asking everyone to not spend your money on Ben Rice for MVP.

No for once this is not Jake Hasan anti-Yankee bias. He’s awesome! Now someone just needs to tell Aaron Boone that!

God forbid we stop praying a the altar off the almighty platoon!!! As long as Boone is gonna bench Rice regularly I’m way good. And even with the platoon, this will be just Rice’s second full season of action and eventually pitchers will catch up and a dip in production will come. Please do not bet the worst of the number right now.

One guys I am interested in though because I think he’s mispriced.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Toronto Blue Jays 30-1

Vladdy’s hitting .342 so far this year, and the power slowly but surely has started to come around. In the last 11 games he has 2 doubles and a homer. Not eye-popping but it is an improvement considering he had 5 doubles and one homer in the 21 games prior to that.

Vlad’s peripherals all look good, he has a .498 expected slugging percentage, is striking out the exact same amount he’s drawing walks (11.8%) and is in the top quarter of the league for bat speed barrel rate and exit velocity. If and when he starts getting the ball in the air more, the extra base hits should flow.

Guerrero is looking at a sixth straight All-Star game, has been in the MVP voting 4 of the last 5 years and is on a team that just went to the World Series so the pedigree is there, and at 30-1 I’m willing to take a shot on the dude who has gotten mentioned every year the last few years.

I’m fully aware we talked about Jose Ramirez in this space a couple weeks ago and MAN has he still not turned things around. I’m still a believer but we’re running out of runway here. But that’s why we take shots! I’ll likely stick with Ramirez and Vladdy the rest of the way, there’s one more guy I’m marinating on and if you’re a listener of Off The Board (with me and Colby Marchio, Wednesdays and Fridays live or wherever you get your podcasts) you know who I’m talking abut.

But we’re hovering on that for now, even if I do add him 3 is the max we’re going to war with.

Alright alright let’s get to the card.

Diamondbacks-Cubs Over 7.5 -105 (blue book)

Genuinely a laugh out loud funny number. I get it, it’s cold and windy in Chicago blah blah blah. But in no world should a game started by Ryne Nelson and Shota Imanaga be SEVEN.

Yes Ryne Nelson has a 3.45 ERA on the road compared to his FOURTEEN POINT FOUR home ERA but he still allows homers and fly balls at a scary rate. I famously am not the biggest fan of this Cubs team but they can hit especially against mediocre (bad) pitchers.

Similarly I trust Shota Imanaga about as far as I can throw him. Despite the 2.85 ERA Imanaga still gives up a ton of hard contact and does not keep the ball on the ground.

And possibly most importantly, both these bullpens kinda stink.

St. Louis Cardinals First Five Innings Team Total Over 2.5 +120 (green book)

I’m honestly not sure how the Dodgers are still trotting Roki Sasaki out there every five days. The dude can’t throw and his starts are somehow getting worse. He gave up three home runs last time out ballooning his ERA to 6.35 on the season.

Now here are the St. Louis Cardinals who somewhat surprisingly have a top-10 offense so far, with JJ Wehterholt, Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker all ranking as top-26 hitters so far this year. Bombs away.

Braves-Rockies First Five Innings Under 4.5 +114 (green book)

We all know how dominant Chris Sale is, we don’t have to belabor that point, and I’like jus add that the Rockies are the second worst offense against left-handed pitching this year, trailing only the Philadelphia Phillies.

But the other part of this is Chase Dollander, the likely starter for Colorado. In April Dolly was one of the most dominant pitchers in the game, logging a 1.28 ERA across 28 innings culminating with a 7 inning shutout against the Mets to close out the month. He allows a lot of hard contact but thanks to the pure filth of his pitches generating whiffs and an elite groundball rate, it hasn’t led to any bad results.

The Braves are a scary offense I get it (as someone that maybe definitely underrated them this year) but I think this Dollander breakout is real and that we’re in for a good pitchers duel.

Boston College baseball Moneyline vs Clemson +132 (blue book)

I mean are we serious? BC took care of business no problem against Clemson yesterday and now we’re making them a dog? Has anyone watched either of these teams lately? Couldn’t be two teams further apart on the vibes spectrum. BIRD BALL BABY!!!

Oklahoma State moneyline -113 vs TCU

We got lucky yesterday as OSU had a comeback walkoff win but I’ll run it back today. This team just finds ways to win at home and they have all year.

JAKEY RAKES JUST FOR FUNSIES HOME RUN PLAY OF THE DAY: JJ WETHERHOLT +475 (green book) AND/OR NOLAN GORMAN +577

Already dragged Roki Sasaki through the dirt and I’m gonna do it again.

Wetherholt has been excellent all year, hence why he’s near the top of the odds board for NL Rookie of the Year. The Cardinals second baseman has also been hot at the plate recently, with a 1.039 OPS and 6 homers in his last 16 games. Wetherholt enters today with an elite rating per batters-box.com to boot.

As for Gorman, he’s always had insane raw power it’s just been a matter of consistency. He can get on hot streaks though, which me might be seeing right now as he has 2 homers in his last 4 games. And at this price with the amount of raw power he has against Sasaki I’ll take a stab. Gorman also has a strong rating aross the board batters-box.com.

That’s it! Good luck on your Derby bets today, I’m on the 2 and the 11 because the in-laws of a girl I went to high school with own them. So what the hell sure! I’ll be live on Gameday Garage at 12:30 PM central going through the card and answering all your questions. Let’s have a Saturday!

Gonna get right into it today as I’m on a bit of a time crunch, will have a funny anecdote/personal story for tomorrow’s Stack to send us into the weekend. But for now, the card.

Nats-Mets First Five Innings Over 4.5 +110

No game started by Miles Mikolas should have a total of 7.5 period. SO we’ll take the first five and the plus money. The Mets have basically been Juan Soto and a bunch of union workers but even this iteration of the Mets should be able to hit Mikolas.

I’m also not a huge believer in Freddy Peralta. He’s cleared 6 innings in just one start this year and has had a problem giving up home runs. While his peripherals indicate a little positive regression incoming this Nats lineup can put up runs occasionally (like yesterday) and so I think Peralta will be good for one or two and hopefully Mikolas takes care of the rest.

Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline vs Milwaukee +106

As I said a couple days ago, to me the Diamondbacks and Brewers are essentially evenly matched. I’ll take the slight plus money with a reborn Michael Soroka against a Brandon Woodruff who is still finding his groove after missing all of last year with a shoulder injury.

Not saying he’s bad but his starts have been a little volatile. I’ll take a slightly better Diamondbacks lineup that has some of their guys heating up at the plate.

Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 Total Bases +115

Kurtz has started to heat up over the last two weeks, slashing .295/.475/.614 with 4 homers in 12 games in that span. Royals starter Noah Cameron has regressed from last year and now has to go to Sacramento where we know the ball flies. I’m willing to still take these plus money prices with Kurtz while we can because if it keeps rolling like this then we’ll be in -110 range sooner rather than later.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases +101 (green book)

Getting plus money on Vladdy here is crazy to me. He’s hitting .358 on the year, is an elite rated hitter today on batters-box.com and Bailey Ober is,,,,well he’s definitely a guy of all time.

Getting plus money for one of the stars of the league who has been a star from Opening Day is honestly malpractice by the green book. This bet could lose honestly and I’d be fine with it. Just can’t pass on the price.

JAKEY RAKES JUST FOR FUNSIES HOME RUN PLAY OF THE DAY NOLAN ARENADO (Diamondbacks) +710

Shoutout to Nolan Arenado, who seems to have found his superstar status again lately. Cast away for peanuts after a whole winter of no one (most notably the Red Sox) wanting to trade for him now Arenado has been on fire.

Over his last 15 games the Diamondbacks third baseman has slashed .380/.418/.700 with 2 homers and having a higher wRC+ thanJose Ramirez, Alex Bregman and Manny Machado.

Arenado doesn’t have crazy history against Woodruff with just one extra base hit in 20 at-bats but the expected slugging is .412 and with the way Arenado has been swinging the bat I’ll take a swing on a long shot home run bet.

That’s it, told you it was a speedrun. Back tomorrow right here! Also back with Colby Marchio tomorrow for Off The Board which you can find on my socials TheJakeHasan on twitter hasan_jake on IG, or COlby’s socials at ColbyMBets or the Bettor Day Youtube page. Tell your friends and family about this substack and tell them to subscribe too. Ok byeeeee.

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First and foremost THANK YOU MOISES BALLESTEROS.

Was pretty awesome to walk out of Project Hail Mary (which was fantastic by the way) and be able to dry my tears with the CASH OF A SEVEN TO ONE HOME RUN BET. Will try to keep those good times going today.

Secondly I have a friend date with Colby Marchio tonight which is equally terrifying and exciting because y’know,,,,he’s an insane person.

But speaking of which you can catch us tomorrow for Off The Board at 12:30 pm eastern. That’ll be on the Bettor Day Twitter and Youtube pages as well as Colby’s Twitch.

Let’s get right to it today.

Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 Total Bases +140 (green book)

Aranda has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball lately, with four home runs in his last six games. He goes against Tanner Bibee today, who we’ve targeted before due to his penchant for giving up hard contact.

Aranda has one home run already against Bibee who has also given up a .492 slugging percentage to left-handed hitters so far this year which the Rays infielder happens to be.

With Aranda having the hot hand and a “strong” rating at batters-box.com today, on top of the homer he already popped against Bibee this year +140 is a price we won’t pass on.

Colorado Rockies Moneyline +169 (nice) ((green book))

Listen these ain’t your Colorado Rockies from last year, or the year before that or the year before that or the year before that or……you get the point.

This Rockies team, flying high after a sweep of the woeful Mets now gets a real test in the NL Central-leading Reds who have been playing great baseball in their own right.

But at this big of a price I can’t pass on the Rockies, they’re plucky! It looks like Kyle Freeland will be returning from the injured list to start tonight’s game and with the Reds being exactly league average against lefties so far this year I’ll take a swing on them at a big price. Even if Freeland has an abbreviated start as he works back up to a full workload this Rockies bullpen has been SHOCKINGLY good and I weirdly trust them.

Chase Burns being on the hill for the Reds is a little scary because he’s excellent but we did just see him have a meltdown against the Angels and hey that’s baseball baby.

St Louis Cardinals Team Total Under: First Three Innings 0.5 +100 F5 1.5 -120

Alright folks say it with me lets TOUCH! THAT! STOVE!!!!!

Braxton Ashcraft has burned us the last two times we’ve gone to team total unders with him. Once via home run in the second inning (which were the only runs he allowed in the game) and the other via Konnor Griffin hero throw.

And last time we bet against the Cardinals offense they pummeled Bryan Woo.

So really what I’m saying is that on this Duesday we are SO due.

The Cardinals are slightly below average on the road, Aschraft has been excellent in two home starts and he rates as an elite pitcher today while the Cardinals have exactly zero (0) hitters above average today per batters-box.com.

Smell that? It’s my hand cooking on the burning hot stove. Yay!

Jose Soriano Over 6.5 Ks +140 (blue book) vs White Sox

Speaking of touching the stove we might as well put a second hand up there right?

Last time out the Angels ace only went for 4 Ks while we were on his over. Now he goes to the south side of Chicago, facing a team that is 6th in K rate vs right handed pitching, and 10th in that same stat at home.

Last time Soriano was in a bounce back spot like this he went for ten strikeouts. He’s also hit this numer in 2 of 3 road starts so we know he isn’t a home park merchant. And it is Duesday after all.

Soriano also profiles as elite today with all nine White Sox batters being above league average in strikeout rate.

Arizona Diamondbacks First Five Innings Moneyline +100 (green book)

This is straight up a vibes play. Both these teams are unspectacular. Arizona 6-4 in their last 10. Milwaukee 5-5. Arizona 6-6 on the road, Milwaukee 8-7 at home.

Chad Patrick and Merrill Kelly are just about evenly matched in my opinion, but Arizona has a slight edge in their lineup.

So with those things considered I’ll go with the Diamondbacks since they have the plus money providing a little #value.

DUESDAY JAKEY RAKES JUST FOR FUNSIES HOME RUN PLAY OF THE DAY: JULIO RODRIGUEZ +546

Julio has gotten out to a miserable start to the year, hitting just .241 and just 2 homers, and even though the Mariners as a whole have been disappointing they obviously were hoping for more from their superstart center fielder.

Now ok yes he did hit a homer just a couple days ago but on this DUEsday the thought is that he’s due to start turning things around. He’s hitting .280 over the last two weeks and has great history against Twins starter Joe Ryan to the tune of 5-for-11 with a couple doubles and a homer. Let’s make it back to back days.

BONUS DUESDAY HR BET: MATT CHAPMAN +610

Chapman has just one home run all year, and it came all the way back on March 31st. So he is SUPER (and conventionally) due.

Thankfully he gets a miserable Phillies team that just fired their manager this morning. Chapman is slashing .323/.400/.419 against left handed pitching this year, is hitting .288 on the road, and his single home run is on the road this year as well.

He also has history seeing Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo (a lefty) with two hits in five at bats including a double.

He has a strong rating today on batters-box especially in terms of hard contact and fly balls. Y’know, things that you need for home runs.

College lean: Coastal Carolina +1.5 runs vs North Carolina +102 at blue book

As I mentioned yesterday this is a litmus test for Coastal, who has been playing much better than early in the year but also hasn’t really faced anyone and UNC is certainly the toughest competition they’ve seen so far. I’ll play it safe since it’s a midweek and things can get weird.

That’s it for today, see you tomorrow for Off The Board with myself and Colby Marchio. As always you can subscribe to this substack for free (or paid if you’re feeling generous) and please tell your friends about it. I mean you want your friends to cash these home run bets too right?

Follow me on Twitter at TheJakeHasan or instagram at hasan_jake.

See ya tomorrow, cheers!

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When I returned to my beautiful country of Chicago in September I swore to never leave again. But sometimes as a part-time worker if you get an offer to dog/house sit in the suburbs you just gotta do it.

So here we are in a mini-exile. Which honestly after how I’ve treated my body the last few weeks a little break will probably be good for extending my lifespan. Gonna see Project Hail Mary tonight after FINALLY finishing the book. Wholesome stuff, y’know?

Anyway hey exile or no we still show up to give you #TheCard, which is as follows. Shorter card today but we still got some stuff.

Los Angeles Angels First Five Team Total Over 2.5 +110

I pray for journeyman pitcher Anthony Kay today, Even though it’s a crappy weather day in Chicago today (and let’s just assume this game gets played) the Angels lineup has been potent so far this season, led by a resurgent Mike Trout.

Despite some success out of the bullpen Kay is what he is, a guy with a ERA approaching six and also the worst rated pitcher on batters-box.com today. At plus money for an Angels team that can absolutely launch the ball out of the yard, I ain’t afraid of no weather!!!

Konnor Griffin Over 1.5 Total Bases +176

I’m of the opinion that Konnor Griffin is starting to find his stride in the bigs. He went 3 for 4 with his first homer on Friday in Milwaukee then tallied another multi-hit game Saturday before going 0 for 2 Sunday. And even Sunday still had a silver lining as Griffin drew his first walk since April 17th.

The Pirates phenom has continously been hitting the ball hard going back to even the previous series against Texas, racking up multiple batted balls of at least 90 mph since then. Despite having a “poor” rating at batters-box.com he registered at least two hits in each of the last two games he was rated as “poor”. There simply still isn’t enough data to blindly trust the ratings and we do have to trust our instincts a bit with a kkid like Griffin.

Part of this is also the fact that Griffin now returns home to a friendly crowd that would love to see him continue to break out, and furthermore Dustin May is on the hill for St. Louis, and he scares me exactly zero percent. Let’s take a stab with the top prospect in baseball.

I also think, because of all the above, now is a good time to buy stock in Griffin ROY. This kid was the favorite coming into the year and is now out to 13-1. If he is in fact starting to figure it out, those prices won’t last very long.

Moises Ballesteros Over 1.5 Total Bases +177 AND THE JAKEY RAKES JUST FOR FUNSIES HR PLAY OF THE DAY +730 (green book)

Ballesteros doesn’t play every game start to finish every day (and that’s why I’m not here mentioning him for ROY) but he has at least recorded an at-bat in every game since April and in that span he’s hitting exactly .500 with 2 homers and 4 doubles.

Randy Vasquez has been fantastic for San Diego so far but allows some of the most barrels, hard contact and exit velocities among pitchers. On top of that Ballesteros, a left handed hitter, crushes righties. As a matter of fact all of his homers and doubles have come against righties, so this feels like a #badbrew for Vasquez and good opportunity for us.

That’s it for the bets, like I said shorter card but still some decent plays to be had. A couple college baseball thoughts to close this Monday.

Kansas is kind of a wagon.

The Jayhawks have been playing incredible baseball for about two months now and are going to win the Big 12 going away. They swept rival KState at KState for the first time in 63 years over the weekend and have a head full of steam with just two weeks left of regular season play. All the value has been sucked out of their futures at this point but they are on track to host a region right now and should that come to fruition they’ll be very fun to bet on.

I once again implore everyone to not fall for the Georgia Tech bait.

Yea yea, they swept Wake Forest blah blah blah. None of their wins were easy and in fact two of them were come from behind fashion. I’ll give them credit for run ruling Georgia in the Tuesday midweek tilt but I maintain this is NOT a championship team and depending how things shake out in the bracket I’ll be inclined to bet against them in their own region when the time comes.

Coastal Carolina might be back

Since their injury-riddled skid of 6-4 to start the year Coastal Carolina has since gone 24-9 while slowly getting healthier, culminating with the return of ace Cameron Flukey Sunday.

Their ace hadn’t pitched since the very start of the year as he’s been recovering from a stress fracture in his ribs. But in a short return Flukey looked like himself firing two scoreless innings with four strikeouts and no walks on 24 pitches.

If the Chants can get him back up to full speed by tournament they may be a real threat to return to Omaha, this upcoming series against top-3 North Carolina will be telling for them.

And that’s that. See you for more #bets and #fun right here tomorrow. Gentle (or not so gentle) reminder you can pledge a paid subscription to this project so I can eat and not have to put myself in mini-exile to do so. Regardless I appreciate and love all of you. Gonna go cry watching Project Hail Mary now.

See you tomorrow, cheers!

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There’s so much pressure behind my eyeballs I legitimately think I understand what it looks like moments before a beached whale explodes (it’s a real thing look it up).

But. Get good. Find a way.

Unfortunately Kyle Stowers nor Dillon Dingler nor Nick Kurtz were good last night.

Unlucky more than anything.

But that’s betting, Susan. Here’s the card, we bounce back. Futures chatter at the bottom.

Carlos Correa Over 1.5 Total Bases +127 vs Cleveland

This is gonna absolutely infuriate some people, hard to say who, when I tell you why I like it.

No Correa doesn’t have any particularly elite ratings anywhere today, however he has 5 hits in his last two games, with multiple of those being hit at a high exit velocity. His bat speed and expected batting average also register well at baseball savant, both higher than 75th percentile in baseball. We may be seeing the start of a hot streak from the three time All-Star.

This is also about who Correa is going against. Tanner Bibee yes is coming off six shutout innings in his last start against the Orioles but on the year he’s allowing some of the most hard contact and barrels on the year.

Even with the “good” start against Baltimore Bibee still had multiple balls hit at 100 mph or more in that game, they just happened to be right at Cleveland fielders. That luck runs out today, hoss.

Oh and Correa is 7 for 20 in his career against Bibee with an average exit velocity of 97 mph.

Carter Jensen Over 1.5 Total Bases +148 vs Baltimore

Turns out missing your alarm and subsequently getting benched for a couple days gives you a sense of clarity in baseball.

At least that seems to be the case with the Royals rookie catcher.

Ever since missing his alarm before the game on April 2nd and returning to the regular lineup April 4th Jensen has slashed .306/.393/.592 with 4 homers and a couple doubles. Oh by the way out of his last ten games as an elite rated hitter he’s cleared 1.5 bases in seven of them. Guess what Jensen’s rating is today?

Now at home, as the best rated hitter on batters-box.com and going against one of the worst pitchers in the league with some of the worst peripherals (hiiii Chris Bassitt!) I love Jensen today.

Jose Soriano over 5.5 strikeouts -114 vs Toronto

It’s taken far too long for me to bring up/back Soriano on a single game basis this year. Let’s correct that shall we?

The second favorite for AL Cy Young and a man who holds a 0.28 ERA on the season, in two starts at home this year Soriano has put up 10 Ks against the Braves and 8 Ks against the Padres respectively.

The Blue Jays have one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league, however when you’re pitching as well as Soriano is this year sometimes I’m willing to just say fuck it and trust the guy with absolutely filthy stuff.

Plus there are some warts for this Toronto team. In (admittedly small sample size) 25 at bats they’ve struck out 32% of the time against the Angels starter.

But most importantly Soriano is that dude so far and at home against a Blue Jay team that still hasn’t quite clicked offensively I like the spot.

Seattle Mariners first five team total over 2.5 runs +100 vs A’s

When I saw the total for the game here was 7.5 I knew we’d be getting active.

However went a little more specific because as much s I don’t trust Logan Gilbert long term he is usually nails at home and historically dominates the Athletics.

So we’ll just go straight fade of Aaron Civale. The Mariners are a top 7 offense vs right handed pitching and even better are the second best offense when they’re at home.

Even though we’re still waiting for the Mariners to fully figure it out those metrics give us a good baseline, plus Julio Rodriguez has started to come around with a .319 batting average the last two weeks and even Cal Raleigh has shown signs of life with a couple homers and a double over the last week.

On top of all that this Mariners lineup historically rocks Civale with a .535 slugging percentage (and .688 expected slugging percentage) in 43 at bats.

Texas Rangers first five innings team total under 1.5 +114

Okay let’s try this again.

Braxton Ashcraft has been phenomenal for the Pirates all year, and in his outing against the Nationals we should have cashed their team total under but then Konnor Griffin decided he’d try a spinning throw to get an inning ending double play.

It did not result in an inning ending double play.

But that’s betting Susan!!! So we’ll just run it back against the Rangers today.

Ashcraft’s peripherals all still look great and he was cruising in that start against the Nats before the errant throw. Texas has struggled to get consistency so far this year outside of Brandon Nimmo and with the second lowest rated offense at home this year this is another good spot to fade them.

Some awards, for your consideration

Jose Ramirez to win AL MVP 22-1:

Okay I know the .235 batting average is unsightly. But Jose Ramirez still has an .856 OPS despite that and has really started to turn it around and look like himself lately.

He’s hitting .333 over the last two weeks, has two home runs and a double in his last 3 games and peripherals are even stronger.

Ramirez is in the 88th percentile in baseball for expected batting average, 92nd percentile for expected slugging and 83rd percentile for barrel rate. And the guy just doesn’t strike out either.

Now for Jakey Narrative. Since 2017 Jose Ramirez has finished top ten in the MVP voting eight times. He’s finished in the top THREE in four of those years.

The voters, if given the opportunity will be dying to give it to Ramirez after so many years of being right there. It’s the Zack Wheeler Effect.

Now of course there’s the Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez of this all, the two current favorites for AL MVP. But to me Judge is pretty vulnerable because even though the power is there he’s hitting just .235 and obviously that’ll positively regress at some point but if all he does is put up 50 homers and a let’s call it .290 average that’ll be pretty pedestrian by his standards especially compared to the last two seasons.

Yordan is harder to poke holes in, because he’s just absolutely mashing. If he stays healthy and keeps this up there’s no reason he won’t win.

But Jose is third in the AL in WAR so far and that’s with the bad start. At 22-1 for a guy who consistently is a finalist for the award this should age very well and we can scream CLV to our graves.

Patience with Rookie of the Year

In the National League Sal Stewart is your +140 favorite and deservedly so, he’s been fantastic for the Cincinnati Reds. But remember when Konnor Griffin was the favorite for this award? His price has started to drift he’s now out to 9-1 and likely to keep getting longer. And at this point I’d just like to remind everyone of a couple years ago when Gunnar Henderson was the preseason favorite, had a bad start and got out to 35-1 then came all the way back to win the award.

Rookies go through ebbs and flows. Just look at AL Rookie of the Year. Chase DeLauter of the Guardians was far and away your favorite at the beginning of April now he hasn’t hit a homer in almost 3 weeks while Munetaka Murakami is hitting the ball out of the stadium if he so much as breathes on it. That race looks like it’s going to be jumbled all year long.

That’s it for today, Colby Marchio and myself will be live at 12:30pm Eastern for our show Off The Board which you can catch on the Bettor Day twitter or YouTube pages, or on Colby’s twitch channel ColbyMBets.

You can always follow me on Twitter TheJakeHasan or instagram hasan_jake and hey if you haven’t subscribed to this substack yet (free or paid btw) well then there’s gonna be a handy little button at the bottom here and if you are subscribed you should be telling all your friends and family about it. I’m only partially employed and I’m going to need a bankroll for allergy meds considering the increased time I’m going to be spending around two cats now.

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Twice a year I’m good for a sinus infection, which after 28 years of life you’d assume I’d get used to it.

You’d be wrong.

My face feels like it’ going to explode.

But like I always say, get good and find a way. Here’s the card.

Dillon Dingler Over 1.5 Total Bases +122 (green book)

I know this is a Colby Marchio play so I’ll go ahead and bastardize it. Dingler is one of the top rated hitters on batters-box.com today, and is slugging .567 on the year including a whopping .643 at home.

Plus Brewers starter Kyle Harrison is due for regression. His 4.09 FIP is over a run higher than his 3.07 ERA and he was knocked around in his last start against Washington.

Kyle Stowers Over 1.5 Total Bases +117 (green book)

I don’t think it’s any coincidence that in the two games since Kyle Stowers came off the injured list, the Miami Marlins are 2-0.

Obviously when you get your best player back in the lineup that is going to improve things for your team and in the two games Stowers has started 3-for-6 with a double and a couple of runs scored.

Now he gets Dustin May who you all know I’m in the business of fading when we can. Give me Stowers to keep up his hot start to 2026.

Phillies-Cubs Over 8.5 -118 (green book)

Jesus Luzardo. Shot Imanaga.

Two fly ball merchants.

Two guys who like to give up a lot of homers.

In Wrigley. Where the wind is blowing out at 11 miles an hour.

Seems bad!!

Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 Total Bases +120 (blue book)

We need to all start appreciating these prices on Kurtz props while we can, because the day of -110 for this prop and sub-300 homers like from last summer are coming.

Despite a slow start to the year the A’s slugger has started to find his swing over the last 5 games with a .375 batting average and 2 homers.

On the other side of this equation Luis Castillo has given up some of the most barrels and hard contact in the league, he also allows significantly more fly balls and because of that lets add a good ol Jakey Rakes Just For Funsies Home Run play of the Day for Kurtz at +390.

A quick college baseball note:

I said this for Gameday Garage as well, but Georgia Tech was finally exposed over the weekend, losing their series in epic fashion at North Carolina. The Yellow Jackets were stymied offensively all weekend long and their pitching finally showed what happens when they don’t have enough offensive support.

Georgia Tech remains a full fade for me going forward.

Shorter one today because my face feels like what I imagine the inside of a pressure cooker is. Tomorrow we’ll be better. Find a way. Awards updates tomorrow too.

Cheers and see ya for the next one, which again is tomorrow! Byeeee

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The really fun and cool thing about betting is you could nail a read, feel really awesome about it then you’re watching the game it’s going well things are trending well.

And then a 19-year-old spikes a throw to first into the dirt and everything goes to hell.

Thank you Konnor Griffin!!

But that’s baseball baby, and that’s definitely betting baby.

We bounce back. Never look away.

Today’s card, as it were.

Georgia Tech -140 at North Carolina (green book)

Easily the biggest matchup of the weekend for college baseball, and I think -140 juice is honestly a little light for Tech. I’ve been skeptical of this team all year and time after time week after week they just continue to find ways to bludgeon everyone.

North Carolina is a powerhouse in their own right and we’ve talked about how they’re just so surgical and find ways to win these games. I’ll admit I was tempted to take the Tarheels as home dogs here but their Friday starter Jason Decaro has been shaky his last two times out and has struggled to go deep into games all year. Against this Tech offense that could become a problem fast.

Meanwhile for the Yellowjackets their starter Tate McKee (y’know,,,,,Tanner’s brother) has stepped up in big spots like this all year long. 6 strong innings against Florida State last week, 7 1/3 against NC State, 6 shutout on the road at Clemson. If you don’t want to pay the juice I get it but this should probably be even heavier.

Ole Miss-Tennessee under 10.5 runs (blue book)

Tennessee starter Landon Mack has been somewhat erratic this year, showing big time strikeout stuff in starts like his last start at home against LSU when he went 7 innings and struck out 10 but also struggling with command like at Georgia when he walked 4 and gave up 2 homers.

Thankfully for Mack and the Vols, the Ole Miss offense is not nearly the powerhouse Georgia is and probably isn’t really at LSU’s level either. Plus with the home crowd behind him following a sweep of Mississippi State last weekend I expect a better start from Mack tonight.

On the other side of the hill Hunter Elliott is going for the Rebs and the 2025 All-American is looking to build off last weekend when he went 6 innings with 8 strikeouts juxtaposed to 1 walk. Tennessee’s offense has some legit dudes like Henry Ford but they’ve struggled to be consistent at the plate this year.

Kansas moneyline at Oklahoma State +108 (blue book)

Good old fashioned Wrong Team Favored here.

Kansas is currently riding an 11 game win streak and have won 17 of their last 19. They can see a Big 12 title in their future and even though Oklahoma State is an impressive 15-3 at home this year I think the no. 18 Jayhawks have the juice right now and they’re a team to back at the moment.

George Valera over 1.5 Total bases*

This is presuming he’s in the lineup which we’re gonna have to wait for because God forbid any teams get their lineups posted early.

But anyway Valera is an elite rated batter today against Chris Bassitt who has been atrocious. We hit with Valera a couple days ago so might as well run it back right? Would be interested in the homer except Bassitt is still pretty good at keeping the ball on the ground despite the results being not great regardless of when the ball is hit.

Anywho Valera hasn’t played since the 14th when he cashed for us in the first place so it should be about time for Cleveland to dust him off again.

Atlanta Braves first five team total over 2.5 -105 (green book)

If you haven’t had the misfortune of watching Taijuan Walker throw a baseball this year, consider yourself lucky.

14 innings pitched, 4 homers allowed, 7 walks issued, 21 (!!!!) hits allowed and a 7.36 ERA.

Now here’s an Atlanta team that is 3rd best in the league by most metrics, 6th best on the road and across 89 at-bats hits .303 against him. Good luck!

Oh and Walker is the third-worst rated pitcher at batters-box.com today.

Cam Schlittler over 6.5 strikeouts vs Kansas City

Hand up. Was totally wrong about Schlittler this year. I absolutely thought he’d fall victim to the “starting pitcher who breaks out in the postseason just to completely fall on his face in the following regular season” complex. Turns out it was just my anti-Yankee complex (why what happened).

Schlittler has dominated this year to a 2.49 ERA and his peripherals are somehow even better. 1.78 expected ERA, a 0.54 FIP and at least 86th percentile in generating whiffs, strikeouts and getting batters to chase outside the zone.

The Royals don’t strike out a ton but their offense has been very underwhelming to start the year now going to the bright lights of New York against one of the league’s better pitchers. Yeesh.

JAKEY RAKES JUST FOR FUNSIES HOME RUN PLAY OF THE DAY: BRANDON LOWE REVENGE SPOT +540 (boosted at green book)

Jakey Rakes + Jakey Narrative.

What could go wrong?

Brandon Lowe, who has 7 home runs already and is on an absolute tear with 4 of those being in the last 6 games.

He hasn’t been great at home this year but he did just hit 2 homers in the home series against Washington plus he has the platoon advantage as a left handed hitter over righty Nick Martinez.

Plus the Nick Martinez of this all, yea he has a 2.16 ERA but its Nick Martinez people. He’s given up one homer in each of his three starts and has a FIP that is almost 3 runs higher than his ERA. Retribution is coming, and it’s coming in the form of Lowe sticking it to the team that shipped him out of town for pennies.

Alright it’s Friday and it’s gonna be 75 degrees in Chicago let’s have an absolute day. Remember to stretch and drink your water. Me and Colby Marchio are live on the Bettor Day twitter account at 1130 central to break down more picks, it’ll also be live on Colby’s Twitch.

Otherwise you can always follow this Substack (paid subscriptions are open and working by the way!) or me on twitter at TheJakeHasan. Think I’m gonna get me a booze drink later, hoss.

Cheers!

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On the heels of yesterday’s plea for everyone to be showering and using deodorant regularly as the temperatures go up, another piece of unsolicited advice.

Fellas, we GOTTA be cleaning the mirrors regularly.

I mean granted you should be cleaning your place regularly as it is.

But the bathroom mirror is often and easily overlooked and man is it a real letdown when you’ve cleaned you’re feeling good about yourself then you have people over it’s great you have a great time then you go into the bathroom after they leave and suddenly notice the weeks of toothpaste flecks still on the mirror.

Just a tough situation, not good for the ol self esteem.

But the good news is there’s always an opportunity to bounce back, which is what I’m here for. You’re welcome! Anyway we start today’s newsletter with a college baseball future

Boston College continues to impress. And the metrics are backing up Birdball

I’ve mentioned this here on Gameday Garage (which you can also find in podcast form) and I’ve talked about it privately with people including and mostly with my guy CrutchBets. Boston College is #fun and I actually think they’re pretty good. They have some scrappy series losses to top teams like North Carolina and have series wins against top-10 teams like Virginia.

So not only have they passed the eye test, but they also are passing some historical tests too. Thanks to our friend at PEARatings who does awesome college baseball stuff we can also see what other teams the Golden Eagles line up with historically.

Pretty good group there to be related to! Now I’m not saying go rush to bet the 7-1 on BC to make the College World Series (I don’t think it’s a bad bet) because at this point I’d rather wait until we get the actual bracket and see the path but this really just backs up what I’ve been thinking about this team.

They are gonna be fun, they are gonna be frisky, and come tournament time they are gonna be a definite play on for game-to-game situations and we are probably gonna definitely be betting them to win whatever region they end up in.

Last call for the Shohei Ohtani Cy Young train

Been saying it for a couple weeks I still give full credit to my friend Femi Abebefe for even putting the idea in my head in the first place, but now I think we’re approaching last call to jump in on Shohei Ohtani to win Cy Young.

“But Jake he’s already -200 for MVP surely he won’t win both!!” Right because there’s no historical precedent for that happening, especially recently.

Hang on Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw would like a word.

Anyway, Ohtani was magnificent in his Wednesday night start: 6 innings pitched, 1 earned run allowed, 1 walk issued and 10 strikeouts. It was the fewest walks issued and most batters K’d in a start this year. The dude is getting stronger as the year is going on. Oh and that was the first earned run he’s allowed so far.

The Dodgers are letting him cook too, he threw 95 pitches last night, 96 in the start before that. Ohtani keeps this up and he’ll easily clear 170 innings and be very live for this award. 19-1 (blue book) is the best price I see on him right now and I think that is gonna get much shorter again after his next start, against the scuffling Giants who he shut down for 3 shutout innings last year when he was still ramping up from elbow surgery.

Today’s bets: MLB and College Baseball

Washington Nationals first 5 innings team total under 1.5 +100 (green book)

Not only do we get the beauty of a bad team like the Nationals on a getaway day, which already indicates under city, but Braxton Ashcraft has been lights out for the Pirates through three starts: 2.12 ERA, 1.69nice FIP and 20 strikeouts to 5 walks.

His peripherals are all excellent as well, especially considering most of the contact he induces ends up in a ground ball. Love that we’re getting even money here.

Gary Sanchez (Milwaukee) over 1.5 total bases +169 AND AS THE JAKEY RAKES JUST FOR FUNSIES HOME RUN PLAY OF THE DAY +424 (green book)

We know what Gary Sanchez is at this point in his career. Cheap source of power who gets on random heaters for a couple weeks through the year.

Well he’s already got 5 homers and an 1100 OPS with a .233 batting average. And this would he his 3rd homer in 4 games.

Fork found in kitchen.

He also has great history against Patrick Corbin (yes he’s a Blue Jay now) 4-11 with a home run and Sanchez also rates as an elite batter on batters-box.com today. The one other time Gary was elite this year? You guessed it. Home run.

Oh and Corbin served up two home runs in his Blue Jays debut last week too.

Seattle Mariners first 5 innings team total over 2.5 +105 (green book)

First and foremost this is a fade of Walker Buehler.

Did he just come off 6 shutty in his last start? Yes. Was that at home agains the Rockies? Currently on a 6 game losing streak? Also yes.

Now he gets a Mariners team that is pissed about blowing the game last night, already has a historical .537 slugging percentage against him AND he’s rated incredibly poorly by most metrics today. He’s given up more than 3 runs in fewer than 5 innings 4 of the last 6 times he was rated this poorly.

And the Mariners are on a home stand welcoming the Rangers to Seattle next, so no getaway day factors for them.

Georgia moneyline vs Arkansas -105

Going full Jakey Narrative for this one and taking the dog(s).

Georgia is going to be out for blood after losing their series to Florida at home last weekend. Arkansas has been really up and down all year and I just don’t trust them at all. This is their first series home in a while so they may come out a little flat.

Georgia is also 5-1 on the road this year with impressive series wins over Texas A&M and Mississippi State (who at the time was a top-5 team).

Junior starting pitcher for the Dawgs tonight Joey Volchko has also been nails as a transfer from Stanford. He’s allowed just four total runs over his last three starts and has allowed just two home runs all year.

And most of all this Arkansas team just when you think they’ll figure it out and turn things around, they disappoint you. This could be a big series for them after sweeping Alabama in Tuscaloosa last weekend so it unfortunately would be SO them to come out with a dud in the first game of this series.

That’s it for today. Go enjoy the day. Get outside before it starts storming if you’re in Chicago. Although it is 11am so most of you are at your jobs I suppose. Idk. Gym time bye.

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As a bonafide sweat boy one of the worst things in the world is when the weather starts getting warmer you start to celebrate, the vibes are going up and then bam you’re on a bus that still is running the heat in 77 degree weather.

Absolute nightmare.

Or somehow worse a building that either hasn’t maintained their HVAC system or simply doesn’t care to turn their AC on either so it’s just muggy stale air hanging around and you just gotta marinate in it and feel like a pug trying to breathe.

But regardless as the weather gets warmer and we start going outside more I am begging, pleading please all of you for the love of everything and anything PLEASE shower and use deodorant regularly. Thank you in advance.

Now for the #sportz.

Nothing doing in awards markets right now. NL MVP is a nothing with Shohei out to -220.

American League MVP is a little more interesting as you have at least some clutter at the top between Aaron Judge, Gunnar Henderson, Bobby Witt Jr and Yordan Alvarez. None of them are bettable prices, in my opinion, but it at least gives us something to monitor and if guys like Jose Ramirez or Julio Rodriguez start to come around then we might have some bets.

Similarly NL Cy Young has nothing doing right now, where Skenes Sanchez and Yamamoto currently hold all the win probability. I still think Shohei at 30-1 (blue book) is where the best play is.

AL Cy Young is,,,,interesting though. Tarik Skubal is unsurprisingly your favorite but what is surprising is the price. He currently sits at +190 (or thereabouts) then your second favorite Max Fried is about ten dollars longer at 12-1.

This I vehemently disagree with. Skubal is great don’t get me wrong. There’s a reason he’s your reigning back-to-back Cy Young winner. And he just came off a really really good start against Miami.

But a ten dollar gap between him and the second favorite? No shot. He simply hasn’t been that dominant yet.

Skubal has failed to get to the 6th inning in a start the same amount of times he’s been able to clear 7 (once each). He has an expected ERA more than a run and a half higher than his actual.

On top of that Kevin Gausman, Cam Schlittler, Gavin Williams, Nathan Eovaldi and Mackenzie Gore all have more strikeouts in fewer innings than Skubal.

Jose Soriano has a 0.33 ERA and 6 more innings than Skubal.

Now your obvious question is “Well who are we betting then? If this is so mispriced surely there are some shots to take?” Don’t worry my friends, of course that’s the case.

I’m still a huge Bryan Woo guy, he just churns out innings (has gone at least 6 innings in 3 of 4 starts) and has had his arrow firmly pointed up for two years leading into this season. He made his first All Star game last year and ended the year 5th inning Cy Young voting. He’s only made one (1) start in Seattle so far this year too so things stand to continue improving for the 26-year-old Mariner. Not a sexy pick seeing as he’s the third favorite at 13-1 but that’s where the #value is to me.

IF you wanna get a little crazier I do think there are options down the board. We probably shouldn’t write Garrett Crochet off just yet after his complete meltdown the other day, it is only April 15th after all. At 18-1 at the blue book that’s something I’m #monitoring.

I might be an idiot (definitely) but it feels a year early for Jose Soriano and Cam Schlittler. They feel like 2025 Hunter Brown to me.

But, at 40-1 and someone with pedigree who has finished in the Cy Young voting multiple times before I do think Kevin Gausman is worth a bet. He started the year red hot with 21 strikeouts in his first two starts, and even though he’s cooled off with only 10 Ks across 10 2/3 innings since then those two starts were against the Dodgers and at the Brewers. Now through four starts Gausman carries a 2.42 ERA with a matching 2.22 FIP to indicate future success too. At worst this ages really well and we scream CLV to our graves.

Now for today’s games.

George Valera (CLE) Over 1.5 total bases +170 (green book) vs St Louis

Valera made his 2026 debut yesterday with a double and RBI, now he gets Dustin May who is so washed he might as well be a setting at your local laundromat. Valera had an elite rating on batters-box.com yesterday and once again does today. At this price against this pitcher it’s just too good to pass up.

Jesus Luzardo (PHI) Over 6.5 Strikeouts +110 (blue book) vs Chicago

The Cubs offense is aggressively mediocre and against someone like Luzardo, who hasn’t pitched as poorly as his ERA would indicate, they may be in for a long day. The Cubs strike out 27% of the time against left handed pitching as it is and this lineup has bad history against Luzardo as it is, with a 27% K rate and .188 batting average across 85 at-bats.

With elite whiff, chase and expected numbers (94th percentile or better) I’d even sprinkle some ladders (4-1 for 9, +750 for 10) with Luzardo in this get right spot at home against a team he has good history against.

Sal Stewart (CIN) to record a walk +157 (green book)

Absolutely love the matchup for Stewart, the current NL ROY favorite, against Giants starter Tyler Mahle today. Stewart is hitting .310 overall, just hit a home run against San Francisco last night and now goes against Mahle who has given out at least one free pass in each of his starts so far this year. With as red hot as the rookie has been, can see Mahle nibbling the zone (nibble,,,,,moon) and we know Stewart has no problems taking the walks seeing he just went through a stretch of recording four in three games.

Milwaukee Brewers First Five Team Total Under

An exact number hasn’t popped for this yet for whatever reason but it will eventually, probably at 2.5 and hopefully at plus money. We all know the upside Dylan Cease has overall, and he’s lived up to the reputation so far this year with a 2.45 ERA and 26 strikeouts across three starts. Now he goes against a Brewers team that he has great history against. In 61 at-bats this roster has hit just .230 (with an expected batting average even lower at .186) against Cease with a 29% strikeout rate.

JAKEY RAKES JUST FOR FUNSIES HOME RUN PLAY OF THE DAY: Chase DeLauter (CLE) +405

Your current favorite for American League Rookie of the Year, DeLauter hasn’t hit a homer since April 3rd. But he’s still raking, having recorded at least a double in 4 of his last 5 games. Now he goes against the aforementioned washed Dustin May in a bounce back spot after going 0-5 in yesterday’s game. DeLauter also has an elite rating today on batters-box.com

I think that’s all we got for today. I lean towards Seattle in a pick ‘em but I don’t wanna be the idiot holding the ticket when the other shoe drops on Emerson Hancock. So we’ll simply cut it.

Tune in later today at 12:30 pm EST for me and Colby Marchio hosting Off The Board. You can find that on the Bettor Day twitter acccount, mine (TheJakeHasan), Colby’s (ColbyMBets) or on Twitch at ColbyMBets. See ya then!

As always you can subscribe for free (or paid!) to this little project of mine and please tell your friends (hell I’ll even take enemies) about it too. I’m trying to keep my lights on after all. Appreciate all of you regardless.

Cheers!

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It’s finally “windows stay open” season in Chicago which is pretty awesome for my electric bill.

It’s also great for morale since life is way more tolerable when you can open your windows and just get that fresh air smell as opposed to the musty winter air you’ve been keeping cooped up for however many months.

That’s why as a man approaching 30 it’s also important to sync your cleaning days with a day you have your windows open, gotta get those floors cleaned and let the cleaner smell mix with the fresh air. It rules. Plus when you do that it gives you an excuse to go sit at a bar with your friends and watch the final round of the Masters the rest of the day. I mean how awesome was that?

While we were all busy watching the Masters, sitting in corner booths of Irish bars and scaring women by doing guest spots on gambling shows in front of them a lot went down in both college baseball and MLB.

Florida continues the Jekyll and Hyde routine

Florida’s last handful of series have gone as follows:

Swept by then-unranked Alabama at Tuscaloosa

Won midweek against then #10 Florida State on a neutral

Swept then #4 Arkansas at Fayetteville

Lost midweek to Jacksonville at home

Lost series at home to unranked Ole Miss

Beat then #5 Florida State on the road at Tallahassee

Won series against #4 Georgia on the road in Athens.

Which brings us to the present where Florida is now ranked across the board, and is even a top-10 team per The Athletic and Baseball America. They’re 10-1 against ranked teams this year and welcome #6 Auburn to Gainesville this upcoming weekend. No idea what this team will be come tournament time but they have certainly shown the upside of why we bet them at 40-1 before the season.

A big series in Chapel Hill coming up

With Texas losing their series over the weekend on the road at Texas A&M, it allowed two teams to jump the Longhorns into the top 3. Georgia Tech and North Carolina now sit #2 and #3 respectively, with Texas sliding to #4.

Now this weekend series at North Carolina between the Yellow Jackets and Tar Heels becomes even more massive that is was going to be originally. I do think this North Carolina team, who you can find at 18-1 to win the title, hasn’t been talked about enough because they may not have the flashy offense GT does or the star power of a UCLA/Texas but they just chug along winning games.

I’ve been pretty anti-Georgia Tech all year long, mostly because the price has stunk and I’ve felt they’re all-or-nothing at the plate. That’s probably pretty disrespectful and they’ll likely host two rounds once we get to the tournament, but I’m still not willing to completely flip my stance just because they swept a Florida State team that was missing its best hitter Myles Bailey. If they take the series at Chapel Hill then we can reconsider. Bets for that coming later this week.

Speaking of Texas…

Still not hitting the panic button, but Texas dropping both games of the series at College Station (game three was cancelled due to weather) was a little disheartening. Ruger Riojas was #notgood once again and Texas just continued to not have the juice they showed for the first half of the year.

They’re still ultra-talented and we’d much rather this happen in April than in June, but man it’d be much better if this train can get back on the tracks soon. Plus we do have to consider the narrative spot it was for A&M, as it was Jim Schlossnagle’s first series back since bolting the Aggies for the Texas job.

Thankfully the Longhorns will have a chance to do that this upcoming weekend as they return home with a chance to take revenge for that Alabama series a couple weeks ago.

Two teams to keep track of as we approach the tournament:

We mentioned Boston College here a couple weeks ago, and #BirdBall continues to be very fun. The Golden Eagles went 4-1 overall last week, with a 5 game week coming up now. Gonna say it again but when they’re inevitably a 2 or 3 seed in someone else’s region we will be VERY much betting BC.

Same goes for Arizona State, who have the likely Golden Spikes winner Landon Hairston. 37 games in and Hairston has 23 homers with a .453/.536/1.053 slash line. The Sun Devils are 26-11 and while they’re just 4-7 against Top 25 teams this year they absolutely have the talent to play spoiler come tournament time.

Now for the MLB card today.

Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases +122 (green book)

This type of price for a guy hitting .340 on the year and being mentioned in the same sentences as Barry Bonds is outrageous.

Alvarez does have bad history against Seattle starter George Kirby (just 3 for 16 with one double) but considering how red hot he is I’ll take Alvarez in today’s matchup.

Plus, he went 0-3 yesterday and who doesn’t love a bounce back spot.

Cristopher Sanchez Over 6.5 Strikeouts +104 (blue book)

Another bounce back spot, this one for Sanchez who gave up 11 hits his last time out. Now returning home and getting a Cubs team that strikes out 28% of the time against left-handed pitching. This Cubs team has been unspectacular so far, and scuffling at the plate overall. They just lost the series to Pittsburgh where they avoided Skenes but now get a different Cy Young contender in Sanchez, who has gone over this number in both home starts this year.

Nationals-Pirates First 3 Innings Under 1.5 +135 (green book)

On one hand you have Skenes, against a Nationals team that even though the team is bad still has guys like CJ Abrams and James Wood. But it’s still Paul Skenes.

Cade Cavalli is who we’re making the bet on here though. The Pirates lineup has been better than expected (to some) this year thanks to guys like Ryan O’Hearn and Brandon Lowe, but I think Cavalli is underrated and while he’s only gone further than 5 innings in 1 start this year, that’s why we’re going for the first 3 play here. First time through Pittsburgh’s lineup I think he’ll be able to minimize the damage and get us home here.

Well, that’s the hope anyway right?

JAKEY RAKES JUST FOR FUNSIES HR PLAY OF THE DAY: Pete Alonso +310 (green book)

Alonso has gotten off to a slow start with the O’s but after going 2-4 with 2 RBI in Sunday’s game he might be starting to turn it around. Helpful that he gets Ryne Nelson in Monday’s game, who has given up 4 homers across his first three starts, seems not good! And a stat that will make Colby Marchio infuriated, Alonso is 5-for-11 against Nelson with 4 of those hits leaving the yard.

A couple MLB Future notes:

I want nothing to do with the Houston Astros. Once again they are absolutely riddled with injury. Hunter Brown already is on the shelf for weeks, Cristian Javier is joining him on the injured list and Tatsuya Imai may not be far behind them after he returned to Houston for tests regarding “arm fatigue”.

Not only that but Jeremy Pena tweaked his knee over the weekend and might be out for a couple games too. It’s a house of horrors over there and even though it’s a long season I think this will be the Mariners and Rangers for the AL West going forward.

Speaking of the Rangers instead of betting them +220 to win the divsion, I’d rather just bet Skip Schumaker 6-1 to win manager of the year. After missing the playoffs completely last season Texas winning the division in 2026 would make a pretty easy case for Schumaker to take home the hardware. The two are correlated so if you think the Rangers are the team likely to win the division, you’re better off making that MOY bet.

I have no idea what’s going to happen in the AL East, the Yankees are still the likeliest to win the division for sure especially considering the imminent return of Carlos Rodon and Gerrit Cole. But let’s just keep an eye on the Orioles. The lineup is starting to come around and the one-two punch of Kyle Bradish + Trevor Rogers is definitely good enough to keep up with good teams.

As far as NL Cy Young goes I’m going to say it again: Shohei is your #value play.

That’s all.

Let’s have a week folks.

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If you’re ever looking for a sure fire way to fry your brain, just be the newest employee at a gym. Trust me, there’ll be weeks where you can almost feel your brain leaking out of your ears. Free membership is cool though.

And nothing to top off that feeling like the Chicago Transit Authority jerking you around on a rainy Friday morning by not updating their bus ETAs in a timely manner. Really good stuff.

BUT we press on. It’s Friday and we’d be remiss to not have a day. Day two of the Masters, an invite to today’s Pirates-Cubs game and the Salt Shed.

And of course,,,,,bets.

Dansby Swanson to record a walk +137 and/or Nico Hoerner to record a walk +228 (green book)

Might as well start with the boots on the ground game right? And it’s the first game of the day so that’s convenient too I guess.

These are a little bit of game theory galaxy brain, but the Cubs two leaders in walks also happen to have very good individual history versus Pittsburgh starter Carmen Mlodzinski which may lead him to nibble at the zone a bit more (extreme Sam Panayotovich voice: nibble,,,moon). But also the wind will be blowing WAY in at Wrigley and it’ll be a little colder than the previous couple days so these two may be a little more content to take some pitches.

Listen I didn’t say it was a perfect game theory ok?

Miami Marlins Moneyline v Detroit Tigers +128 (blue book)

We’re rapidly getting to a point where if you see the Marlins at significant plus money you just gotta take it. Today’s spot against the Tigers is a perfect example of why.

Not only are the Marlins 8-5 and leading the NL East, but the Tigers are the exact opposite having lost 5 straight sitting in the basement of the AL Central.

And it’s not like this is Chris Paddack versus Tarik Skubal or hell even Jack Flaherty. It’s Keider Montero!!! What are we TALKING ABOUT HERE?! It’s a pitching mid-off so I’ll side with the Marlins, who just continue to find a way.

*Small awards-based note on the Tigers while we’re here: Parker Meadows got concussed to hell in yesterday’s game against the Twins after he collided with Riley Greene in the outfield. And obviously we hope he’s okay and the updates are positive after he had to spend the night hospitalized, but this is a betting-based program and I’d be remiss to not mention that Meadows’ primary position is center field which just so happens to be the regular position of one Max Clark, who is hitting .400 with an 1.100 OPS in AAA right now. Just something to monitor, as Clark’s ROY price can be found in the triple digits right now.

Chase Burns over 8.5 +136 and over 9.5 strikeouts +259 vs Los Angeles Angels (green book)

The Angels, currently holding the 4th highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching, are in for a really bad time today.

Chase Burns has started his sophomore campaign on absolute DEMON time, with a 0.82 ERA and 16 strikeouts over just 11 innings of work (2 starts).

Now going against an Angels team that’s more prone to hitting the opposing pitcher in the face rather than hitting the ball Burns should keep his hot start to the season going.

JAKEY RAKES JUST FOR FUNSIES HOME RUN PLAY OF THE DAY: Josh Bell +535 (green book)

Patrick Corbin makes his 2026 debut as a Toronto Blue Jay, and thanks to that we get an absolutely lovely home run bet. Josh Bell is swinging an incredibly hot bat to start the season, slashing .317/.431/.634 with 3 home runs (2 of those being on the road too) and now he gets to go against Corbin.

Oh Bell’s numbers against Corbin you ask?

4 for 16 with 3 homers.

LETS CASH THE FIRST ONE OF THE YEAR BOYS.

OK now for the college card

Texas Moneyline -115 vs Texas A&M (green book)

I know Texas has lost three of their last four Friday night games, and Ruger Riojas was knocked around by South Carolina last time out, but fact is this game should not be a pick. Texas should still be favored.

Now you all know and love Jakey Narrative so I do have to acknowledge that this is Texas manager Jim Schlossnagle’s return to College Station for the first time since he jumped to UT following A&M’s loss in the College World Series final just 22 months ago. Storylines galore here.

But when you trim all the fat I still think Texas is simply the better team and am willing to put money on that. Just look at my futures portfolio. Horns up baby.

Kansas Moneyline +105 v University of Central Florida (green book)

While the Golden Knights have been a pleasant surprise in the Big 12, jumping into the rankings after a series win against West Virginia last week, Kansas has been quietly winning a lot as well.

The Jayhawks have won 7 in a row and are 10-2 at home this season. In a conference rock fight against a UCF team that is just .500 on the road this year we’ll take a tiny shot on the home dog here.

Happy Friday everybody we’re live tomorrow afternoon for Gameday Garage which you can follow on socials at GamedayGarge, and if you wanna contribute to the hotdog + beer fund today you can always consider signing up for a paid subscription to this little project.

Otherwise enjoy the games, enjoy the Masters (Viktor Hovland you’re dead to me) and most importantly enjoy the weekend.

Cheers!

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Obviously today is going to be dominated by The Masters, and rightfully so, which excuses the meager six game slate we have for baseball.

BUT DESPITE THE SLIM PICKINGS,,,,,,we have bets. Because well that’s kinda the point of this whole Substack. So. Yea here’s the bets for today.

Cincinnati Reds First Five Innings Moneyline +102 (blue book)

I’m obsessed with Reds starter Rhett Lowder. After not pitching in the majors at all in 2025 Lowder has come out of the gate firing in ‘26, with just a 1.64 ERA and 6 hits scattered across 11 innings of work. And only one (1) of those hits have gone for extra bases.

The Reds look to take the series in Miami today, and with Marlins starter Max Meyer having been roughed up through two starts to the tune of a 4.66 ERA as well as having bad history against some of the Reds regular batters I think we have a good old fashioned WTF (wrong team favored, for the unitiated) here.

New York Yankees Team Total First Three Innings Under 1.5 -135 (green book)

Slightly juicy price to pay and was honestly hoping for better considering it’s the Yankees but we work with what we got.

Jeffrey Springs appears to have found the form from his time with the Rays which earned him a 4-year contract from the Athletics in the first place because through two starts he’s allowed just three runs, no homers and he has the peripherals to indicate he’ll keep it up.

Springs also has good history vs this Yankees team as they hit just.188 against the lefty in 33 at-bats. AND speaking of left-handed pitching New York is actually shockingly not great against lefties this year, registering just a 67 wRC+, 43 percent below league average.

Colorado Rockies First Three Inning Moneyline +124 (green book)

I’m gonna say it.

The Rockies are FUN AS HELL.

It helps that instead of like….me and Sam Panayotovich in the lineup like last year they actually have big leaguers like Eduard Julien and Ezequiel Tovar. But irregardless the Rockies are .500 or better through 12 games for the first time since 2022 and just swept the Astros for the first time since TWO THOUSAND AND TWELVE.

And I think they start fast today as massive underdogs to Randy Vasquez and the Padres. This is more of a vibes play than anything and just buying into what the Rockies are selling right now (other than the three dollar beers at Coors Field).

Chase Dollander returns to the rotation for Colorado today and while the start of his career has been turbulent we’ve seen the flashes of what made him such a highly coveted college pitcher. Dolly (I can call him that, we’re close personal friends obviously) has had success against San Diego, the Padres hit just .214 with a .188 expected batting average to boot. I think he’ll be amped up for his first start of 2026 and the Rockies can get to an early lead.

Florida State Moneyline +145 vs Georgia Tech

While I’ll admit the Masters will have most of my attention today we have an awesome night cap with this FSU-GT game. A good old fashioned top-5 series as we inch closer and closer to the tournament.

This will be fun because we get FSU starter Wes Mendes, who has been sensational this year and was just named in Baseball America’s watchlist for pitcher of the year, against the vaunted Georgia Tech lineup.

To be completely honest I was worried what this Florida State team would look like after star first baseman Myles Bailey suffered a season-ending leg injury but all they did was go on the road to number 7 Virginia and win the series. It’s clear this team has no intention of backing down despite the injury, and with Mendes on the hill I’m willing to back them at this price.

That’s it, I have no funny anecdotes today. Sports! It’s the best!

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Are we back?

It kinda feels like we’re back.

4-2 yesterday including the Texas State BANGER at the end??? Which is why you should always read until the end folks, sometimes stream of consciousness has a bet slipped in at the very end.

After we discuss caulking and baseboards and things of that nature of course.

No updates on that front, so I suppose straight into the bets we go today.

Jake Bauers (Milwaukee Brewers) Over 1.5 Total Bases +189 (green book)

At first glance it makes sense why Bauers’ number here is so high, but I actually think there’s some #value here. A) I’m not a believer in Sonny Gray. He’s recorded a great ground ball rate through two starts for Boston this year, but he’s not getting any whiffs and the expected numbers seem like disaster is coming. And now for B) Jake Bauers is slugging .542 against right handed pitching this year which would make him top-30 in baseball. Not only that but in 16 at-bats against Gray Jake Bauers has 6 hits including a double and a home run. Small sample, but one that’s pretty hard to ignore, at least for me.

Seattle Mariners v Texas Rangers First 3 Innings Under 2.5 -135 and Under 1.5 +154 (green book)

Worked out for us yesterday with two elite pitchers in the Brewers and Red Sox game, let’s go back to the same thing in this one with Bryan Woo going against Mackenzie Gore.

Woo has struck out 15 batters in 13 innings across two starts, allowing just two runs total on the year. Now he goes against a Texas team that he has previously held to just a .230 batting average in 74 at-bats. And he’s really, really good.

On the other side Mackenzie Gore has had a solid start to his Rangers tenure, including his home debut last week where he went six innings against the Reds striking out nine batters. Plus, the Mariners head home to Seattle after this game AND Seattle is a bottom five offense versus left handed pitching so far this year.

Shohei Ohtani to hit a double +356 (green book)

Well first off, it’s the best player in MLB history. Secondly he’s 10 for 26 in his career versus Toronto starter Dylan Cease including a couple doubles. And again, best player ever. And it’s a better price than his home run. Oh and Ohtani has 5 doubles in 17 games at Rogers Centre too.

Tampa Bay Rays Team Total O3.5 -125 (blue book)

This is just straight up a fade of Colin Rea who is making his first start of 2026 for the Cubs. Rea has already made two appearances out of the bullpen and they’ve been….fine (6 and 1/3 innings 3 ER and one homer allowed) but one of those was against the Guardians and this Rays lineup is not only the best Rea has seen so far this year but also has good history against the veteran pitcher (.389 batting average and .750 slugging).

Jakey Rakes Just For Funsies HR Play of the Day: Jackson Merrill v Mitch Keller +760 (green book)

Merrill has started the season slow for San Diego, hitting just .225, but he’s got a double and a homer in two of his last three games so he might be coming around here shortly. With good history against Mitch Keller (3-6 with a triple) as well as an elite matchup rating via batters-box.com we’ll take a shot on Merrill to get his second dinger of the year and cash a big price.

A lot of decent plus money in the substack today which is admittedly a little scary. But say it with me kids: Never. Look. Away.

Me and Colby Marchio will bet live at 2PM Eastern today breaking down the whole MLB slate and talking through our bets so be sure to follow us both on twitter me TheJakeHasan and Colby at ColbyMBets we’ll tweet the links when we’re live. I promise we’ll be on time this week.

Until the next one.

Cheers!

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